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We Are Spectators....(11-6-12)

<B>(5:40 pm Tuesday November 6th)</B> The latest data points toward a costal storm being to far east to have a direct impact on central New York. However, there will be major impact for areas hit hard by Sandy.
The trends from our computer models Tuesday continue to show low pressure tracking far enough east off the East Coast to have a minimal impact on central New York.  I took these maps from the Montreal Weather Center web site as they have a closer view of the Northeast compared to the maps I posted yesterday. These maps will give you an easier view of the exact forecast location of the Nor’easter.




The bottom image of the European model is a bit different from the GFS in that it doesn’t show the precipitation but the takeaway is they both have a strong storm south of southern New England, too far to have a direct impact on us.

So at this point, it looks like there may be some rain, or better yet snow showers on the eastern flank of our viewing area Wednesday night.  Unless there is a change in computer models later tonight or tomorrow (specifically a jog in the path to the west), it is very likely that Syracuse and points west will stay dry.

This storm still looks to have a major impact on coastal areas of the Northeast.  Winds will be strong and there are high wind warnings up in many areas recovering from Sandy. Here is the threat posed by the wind as spelled out by the NWS:

STRUCTURES AND TREES WEAKENED BY THE STORM LAST WEEK
 MAY BE FURTHER DAMAGED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS. THIS
 CAN ALSO RESULT IN RENEWED POWER OUTAGES...PARTICULARLY IN
 AREAS WHERE THE ELECTRICAL SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
 DEBRIS FROM LAST WEEKS STORM COULD BECOME A HAZARD DURING THIS
 NEW STORM... ESPECIALLY IF IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO BECOME
 AIRBORNE.

Also, with the track being farther east, the specter of accumulating snow for some areas hit by Sandy last week seems real.  The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories just northwest of New York City all the way down to Philadelphia.  

What will likely be the big story for us here in central New York is the warm up on tap. It’s a welcomed relief after a week and a half where our high temperatures averaged about 10 degrees below normal. The warm up begins over the weekend and, although our warmest weather will likely be Sunday and Monday, temperatures should still average above well into the middle of the month. Here is a map from the GFS ensembles that shows what temperature at about 5,000 feet will be warmer when compared to normal.


Even though this map is showing us whether temperatures will be above or below normal at 5,000 feet, it should closely mirror trends down at the ground.  It is signs like this from not only the GFS ensembles but also the European model that lead the National Weather Service to go with a warmer than normal forecast for much of the United States right up to the start of Thanksgiving week.



This 8-14 day forecast takes us right up to the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. It's not to say we can't have any winter weather weather over the next 2 weeks but a pattern like this doesn’t bode well for any prolonged early winter weather for us here in central New York.


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