Watching a Nor'easter

Watching a Nor'easter

<B>(Wednesday Midday November 7, 2012)</B> Clouds from the outer fringes of a Nor’easter will continue to stream north into central New York this afternoon. Skies will be cloudy tonight but looks like any precipitation (some flurries or light snow) will stay well east of Syracuse.
Low pressure (a nor’easter) is centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast this midday with high pressure over the central Plain States.  Over the next 36 hours, the nor’easter is forecast to continue on its northeast track and should be positioned just offshore of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. On this trajectory most, if not all, of the rain and snow with this storm will miss Central New York.  Some of the most recent data suggests that light snow or flurries may move as far west as areas of far southeast Madison/Oneida Counties and perhaps a bit more likely, Chenango County.

However, even in these locations the threat for snow is iffy with only very light accumulations at most.  For the rest of Central New York, the most likely outcome from this storm will be for extra cloudiness this afternoon through to tomorrow morning.  As the storm pulls farther away from the Eastern Seaboard Thursday, we’ll likely see an increase in sunshine during the afternoon.  By Friday, the aforementioned high pressure over the Plain States will be closer to the region, over the Ohio Valley region, and provide for a nice day for the area. 

Thereafter, we’ll turn noticeably warmer.  Though, before we get into the warmth, it looks like we will get into a period of cloud cover.  This is not unusual as the warmer air initially rise over the cooler air near the ground. This process, rising air, causes clouds and sometimes precipitation.  We think this will happen on Saturday causing more clouds than sun, and while we expect a largely dry day we cannot entirely rule out a spotty light shower or sprinkles.

The leading edge to the warm, a warm front, will push to our north Saturday night.  That will put us solidly in an unseasonably warm air mass for Sunday and Monday along with a brisk south-southwesterly breeze. We think that temperatures at or above 60 degrees are a real possibility.
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