A new nationwide Zogby survey of 1,016 likely voters in the U.S., conducted 8/6/18 to 8/8/18, with a margin of error of +/-3.1%, shows democrats with a slight edge over republicans in the congressional generic, but republicans are catching-up.
Since our last poll in June regarding the congressional generic question, democrats remain unchanged at 40%, but republicans have gained ground at 37%, while less than one fifth of likely voters remain not sure, or will not vote in November. When we dig into the demographics, party lines are drawn in the sand. Democrats dominate with women and younger voters, which is no big surprise, but what ground republicans gained with younger and older Millennials a few months back, has been erased. But not all is bad for republicans, because they are doing much better with likely voters, age 30+. Democrats are winning among 30-49 year olds (democrats lead republicans 40% to 36%), and republicans dominate among voters age 50+. Among voters age 50-64, republicans lead democrats 47% to 37%, and also lead among voters age 65+, 44%-40%.
Where Republicans are gaining serious ground is with independents (republicans lead democrats 24% to 22%), and union voters (republicans lead democrats 38 to 37%). Republicans are also doing well with small city voters (republicans and democrats are tied at 36%), suburban voters, (republicans lead democrats 42% to 36%), NASCAR fans (republicans lead democrats 45% to 33%), and weekly Walmart shoppers (republicans lead democrats 42% to 39%).
When it comes to income, republicans do better with voters who earn $100k+ and democrats do well with voters who earn <$100k. It must be noted that with voters who earn $50k-$100k annually, democrats and republicans are statistically tied; one percentage point separates each group.
Regionally, voters in the south were for republican congressional candidates (republicans lead democrats 41% to 34%) and the east (democrats lead republicans 43% to 28%), central (democrats lead republicans 45% to 38%) and western (democrats lead republicans 41% to 37%) regions were for democrats. Democrats were doing very well with Hispanics (democrats lead republicans 43% to 27%) and African Americans (democrats lead republicans 71% to 9%), while things were close with weekly Amazon shoppers (democrats lead republicans 44% to 42%) and voters without college degrees (republicans lead democrats 37% to 36%).
In addition to the economic indicators we examine to measure how well the president is performing with voters, we also track who voters trust most at “growing the U.S. economy and keeping America safe”. Both are important issues when voters decide who to vote for. If Trump can show that under his tenure there is peace and prosperity, he might be hard to beat in 2020 and republicans might be able to offset some loses and retain the House and Senate in the 2018 midterms.
When it comes to the economy, the numbers have increased considerably for President Trump since we last polled who voters trust more to “grow the economy”; Trump holds a double digit lead over democratic leaders (45% to 34% in favor of Trump), while one in five likely voters remain uncertain. More men (54% to 31%) favor Trump with the economy, while women were split (both 37%) between Trump and democrats. Slightly more 18-29 year old voters (38% to 32% in favor of democrats) trust democratic leaders over Trump to grow the economy. The president’s numbers have increased noticeably with independents (41% to 25% in favor Trump), and older Millennials age 25-34 (39% to 37% in favor Trump) since May. A majority of NASCAR fans (60% to 24% in favor of Trump) and weekly Walmart shoppers (51% to 28% in favor of Trump) are more prone to trust the president compared to democratic leaders. Among Hispanics it was close, as 36% trusted Trump with the economy, compared with 41% of Hispanics, who prefer democratic leaders.
The other issue we tested had to do with “keeping America safe”. President Trump gained ground this time around and leads democratic leaders regarding the security of the nation (Trump-45% and democratic leaders-38%). More men trust Trump than democratic leaders on the issue of security (54% to 34% in favor of Trump), while more women (42% to 36%) and younger voters age 18-29 (53% to 26%) trust democratic leaders to keep America safe. Independents (38% to 32% in favor of Trump), weekly Walmart shoppers (50% to 32% in favor of Trump), and weekly Amazon shoppers (50% to 38% in favor of Trump) trust the president more than democrats on the issue of security.
Trump at the moment is polling well with middle income voters who earn $50-$75k annually. Trump leads democrats, both on the economy, 47%-31%, and keeping America safe, 47%-38%. Small city voters favor Trump with the economy and both Trump and democratic leaders receive 40% for keeping America safe.
- Republicans are doing much better than they were a few months ago when it comes to the congressional generic. Republicans continue to make big gains with independents, small city voters, and union voters.
- President Trump is doing well enough among his base-men, older voters age 50+, Walmart Shoppers, NASCAR fans, voters without college degrees, rural voters, small city voters, plus, voters in general are happy with their current finances, and optimistic about the next four years for the economy.
- Since our last poll in June, the President has consolidated his lead over democrats when it comes to who voters trust on issues of growing the economy and security.
- President Trump will need to get his numbers in the mid forties percentage wise regarding who voters trust more “growing the economy and keeping America safe” among voters age 25-34, women, and independents. Trump will also need to receive strong support from his base to prevent democrats from making serious gains in the November congressional mid-term elections.
- Trump’s doing alright regarding his job approval rating, and is much more trusted with “growing the economy and keeping America safe” than democratic leaders. He is also benefitting from a decent economy, a low unemployment rate and an inflated stock market. All of these factors can change pretty quickly. From now until November lots of things can change, and there is always lurking an “October surprise”, which could hurt republicans.